B – Publication success prediction

Hönekopp J, Khan J. Future publication success in science is better predicted by traditional measures than by the h index. Scientometrics 2012;90(3):843-853
(doi: 10.1007/s11192-011-0551-2)

Little is known about how future publication success can be predicted from past publication success. This article investigated how the post-2000 publication success of 85 researchers in oncology could be predicted from their previous publication record. The main findings were: rates of past achievement were better predictors than measures of cumulative achievement, and a combination of authors’ past productivity and the past citation rate of their average paper was most successful in predicting future publication success. This combination of traditional bibliographic indicators clearly outperformed predictions based on the rate of the h index.